“Complete collapse” for two to three weeks, during which the main demand will be generated not by tourists, but by those who want to escape from Russia, an 80% drop in purchasing power, coupled with an increase in prices for outbound tours to 200 thousand rubles. – and a slow-slow recovery of tourism for about six months. Such a forecast of upcoming trends was announced at the ATOR site by the head of the tour operator Space Travel Artur Muradyan.
“Now people are going abroad not for the purpose of recreation, but to wait out turbulent times for a month or two” or even emigrate. In conditions of limited transportation and increased demand from this particular audience, the cost of air tickets for departure from Russia has increased significantly,” he said. As for pure tourism, it will still be in collapse for at least two or three weeks, or, according to the expert, “in complete coma”. And then – those who survive it all – will have to deal with the following “trends”:
80% – according to expert estimates – a drop in purchasing power due to the depreciation of the ruble, as well as the departure of Visa and Mastercard, and new currency rules. “People will have nowhere to go. Nothing to fly. And with nothing. The cards do not work, the sale of cash currency is prohibited,” the expert said.
And so far, the entry into the market of Chinese payment systems – i.e. Union Pay is a “very conditional exit.” According to the expert, when using Union Pay, conversion takes place through three currencies, and due to the conversion of rates and commission, losses will amount to 15%, “which is unacceptable.”
Another trend will be the deterioration of attitudes towards Russian tourists. Eastern and Asian countries are relatively calm about the situation around the global geopolitical conflict, while in Europe the mood is already properly “warmed up”. On the other hand, Europe is unlikely to shine for Russian tourists in the near future – but the risk of encountering unfriendly “colleagues” and hotel staff is not so small.
Also, according to the expert, in the “new reality” the number of “travel restrictions” will increase significantly – these will be government officials, military personnel, policemen, etc.
What awaits tourists as a result of these trends? First of all, the rise in price of everything, although hoteliers will have to “balance”. “Given the decline in the markets of Russia and Ukraine, hoteliers in Egypt will have to lower prices for accommodation for the CIS market in order to maintain flows. However, taking into account the rise in prices for jet fuel and the depreciation of the ruble, package tours (flight + hotel) to Egypt are cheaper than 150-200 thousand rubles. will not be,” Artur Muradyan assessed. In Turkey, the expert also predicts that demand will continue – although the country will rise in price due to the fall of the ruble and the reduction in transportation volumes, the all-inclusive offer, which allows you to avoid buying foreign currency and spending extra money on vacation, will be a significant plus. Moreover, tours to Turkey are even predicted to “burn”. “At the start of the season, sales in the direction of “burning” will not, but then, perhaps in June, the situation will change, as the purchasing power of Russians will decrease,” Artur Muradyan assessed.
Holidays in Russia will also rise in price, as the cost of everything will increase, including the maintenance of tourist facilities (for example, hotels) and services. “We are in for an era of inflation and hyperinflation. Holidays within the country will soon cost the same amount as previously paid for tours to the Emirates and Turkey, both in the budget and in the “five-star” segments,” Arthur Muradyan “frightened”. However, both Crimea and the Russian South “will get their tourists.” He also noted that the time has come for hoteliers to turn towards the organized market. This is especially true for the small and private sector, which received customers exclusively through aggregator platforms.
“The situation in the tourism market will be the most difficult in the next 4-6 months,” the expert assessed. But it’s still too early for a tourist to “cover himself with a sheet and crawl to the cemetery”. “The demonstrative withdrawal of foreign companies from Russia now looks like a hype. As the degree of global tension decreases, as it was after 2014, international business will be drawn to the restoration of ties with Russia,” the expert estimated.